Showing posts with label the. Show all posts
Showing posts with label the. Show all posts
Tuesday, June 13, 2017
Its the most wonderful time of the year!
Its the most wonderful time of the year!
Its mid July and while the normal folks are busy planning trips to the lake and having BBQs we horror fanatics and monster kids are scouring store aisles waiting for that first bit of Halloween merchandise to rear its orange, ugly head. The first sighting a grinning pumpkin means the cool, crisp Autumn air is soon to follow. Aisles full of backpacks and brightly colored markers will get replaced with jack-o-lanterns and skeletons. Its truly the best time to be a horror nut.
So what have I found so far? Not a lot. But what I have seen has been quality which makes me think that were in for a great Halloween season!
Gordmans
At Home (formally Garden Ridge)
Michaels
As July comes to an end you can expect more posts dedicated to further Halloween-related merchandise. As Ive relocated to a new state this year Im realling looking forward to checking out what Albuquerque has to offer this season.
For further updates be sure to follow @Cannibalreviews on Instagram, Twitter, and Tumbler. For those also located in the Southwest Im currently working on a facebook page that can bring like-minded individuals together to share news on upcoming local events and Halloween related activities.
Available link for download
Tuesday, June 6, 2017
John the Don Motu Patlu Compilation Part 5 30 Minutes of Fun!
John the Don Motu Patlu Compilation Part 5 30 Minutes of Fun!
Watch John the Don - Motu Patlu Compilation - Part 5 - 30 Minutes of Fun!
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Available link for download
Just Announced Avadon The Black Fortress
Just Announced Avadon The Black Fortress
We have finally, after six months of hard work, gotten our new fantasy RPG series to the point where we can announce it to the world. It will be Avadon: The Black Fortress.
You can now see the screenshots and first details of the story. In the nine months or so it will take to finish the game, we will also be putting monthly development diaries up. That will give nice little breaks from my ranting.
Hope it looks interesting, and well have a bunch more information soon.
Available link for download
Joseph Nye’dan ‘Will the Liberal Order Survive ’
Joseph Nye’dan ‘Will the Liberal Order Survive ’
1937 do?umlu Amerikal? ünlü Siyaset Bilimci ve Harvard Üniversitesi’ne ba?l? John F. Kennedy School of Government Profesörü Joseph S. Nye[1], daha çok “soft power” (yumu?ak güç) kavram?yla bilinse de, bu tezi ?????nda dünya siyasetini inceleyen ve yorumlayan konu?ma ve yaz?lar?yla son y?llarda hakl? bir ?öhret kazanm??t?r. 2011 y?l?nda Amerikan Foreign Policy dergisi taraf?ndan dünyan?n en etkili dü?ünürleri aras?nda gösterilen[2] Nye, ayn? derginin 2014 y?l? içerisinde uluslararas? çaptaki akademisyen ve politika yap?c?larla yapt??? bir ara?t?rma sonucunda ise, politika yap?c?lar aç?s?ndan dünyan?n en etkili akademisyeni olarak lanse edilmi?tir[3]. Bu yaz?da, Nye’?n Foreign Affairs dergisinin son (Ocak-?ubat 2017) say?s?nda yay?nlanan “Will the Liberal Order Survive? The History of an Idea” (Liberal Düzen Ya?ayabilecek Mi? Bir Fikrin Tarihi)[4] adl? makalesi özetlenecektir.
Joseph Nye
Joseph Nye’a göre; ABD, 19. yüzy?ldaki küresel güç dengesinde son derece k?s?tl? bir rol oynam??t?r. Hatta o dönemde bu ülkenin büyük bir ordusu bile yoktur; 1870’lere kadar, ABD Deniz Kuvvetleri, ?ili Deniz Kuvvetleri’nden bile daha küçüktür. Her ne kadar ABD hükümeti ve Amerikan halk? Meksika ve K?z?lderililerden al?nan topraklar ve kaynaklar konusunda bir muhalefet geli?tirmeseler de, ABD’nin Kuzey Amerika k?tas? d???ndaki uluslararas? siyasete müdahalesi konusunda bu dönemde olumsuz bir pozisyon alm??lard?r. ABD’nin dünya ekonomisinde büyüyen pay? ve yüzy?l?n sonunda geli?en emperyalizm dü?üncesi neticesinde ise, zamanla ABD’nin ilgisi yurtd???na do?ru kaym?? ve bu durum, ABD Ba?kan? Woodrow Wilson’?n ülkeyi Birinci Dünya Sava??’na sokmas?na neden olmu?tur. Ancak Wilson’?n dünya siyasetine yön vermeye yönelik ihtirasl? hamlesi (Wilson Prensipleri) ba?ar?s?z olunca, 1920’ler ve 1930’larda ABD’nin önceli?i yine iç politika olmu?tur.
Bu y?llarda, tüm dünyadaki muadilleri gibi, Amerikal? siyasetçilerin önceli?i de Amerikan ulusal ç?karlar?n? savunmak olmu?tur. Bu nedenle, Büyük Buhran dünya ekonomisini vurdu?unda, Amerikal? siyasetçiler de öncelikle kendi ülke ekonomilerini krizden korumak için önlemler almaya çal??m??lard?r. Birkaç y?l içerisinde Avrupa’da ve dünyan?n birçok yerinde bar??? tehdit eden diktatörlükler olu?tu?unda ise, Avrupal? partnerleri (?ngilizler) gibi, öncelikle yat??t?rma (appeasement) politikalar?n? denemi?lerdir. Bu y?llarda, ABD, asl?nda dünyan?n en güçlü ekonomik ve askeri gücü haline gelmi? olmas?na kar??n, ABD’nin ba??n? çekti?i liberal bir düzen henüz kurulamam??t?r. Bunun neticesi ise, W. H. Auden’?n “low dishonest decade” ad?n? verdi?i ekonomik buhran, tiranl?k, sava?lar ve soyk?r?mlarla dolu berbat bir on y?ld?r.
1940’larda ise, ABD, Mihver devletleriyle aktif olarak mücadeleye ba?lam?? ve sonras?nda yeni bir dünya düzeninin kurulmas?na yönelik yap?c? ad?mlar atm??t?r. Bu y?llarda, ABD, yaln?zca ulusal ekonomik ve siyasal ç?karlar üzerinde durmak yerine, di?er ülkelerle kar??l?kl? i?birlikleri tesis ederek, tüm dünyada bar?? ve refah yaratacak politikalar üzerinde çal??maya ba?lam??t?r. Nitekim 1945 sonras?nda kurulan yeni dünya düzeninde, ABD, serbest ticareti ve denizlere aç?kl?k politikalar?n? desteklemi?tir. Bretton Woods sisteminin unsurlar?, henüz daha sava? devam ederken kurulmu?tur. Di?er ülkelerin bu düzen içerisinde ayakta kalmak için güçsüz ve fakir olduklar? görülünce ise, ABD, Truman yönetimince geli?tirilen bir politika do?rultusunda, onlara ekonomik yard?mlar yapmaya ve güvenliklerini sa?lamaya ba?lam??t?r. 1946 y?l?nda Birle?ik Krall?k’a yüklüce bir borç veren ABD, ayr?ca Yunanistan ve Türkiye’deki Bat? yanl?s? hükümetleri desteklemi? ve 1948 y?l?nda da Marshall Plan? (Marshall Yard?m?) ile sava?ta y?k?lan ülkeleri yeniden kalk?nd?rmak için aktif deste?e ba?lam??t?r. 1949 y?l?nda NATO’yu kuran ABD, ayr?ca 1950 y?l?nda Kore’yi korumak için bir askeri koalisyon kurmu? ve 1960 y?l?nda da Japonya’n?n güvenli?i için bu ülke ile bir güvenlik anla?mas? imzalam??t?r.
Bu giri?imlerle, ABD, Sovyet Rusya etkisinin ve komünizmin dünyaya yay?lmas?n? büyük ölçüde engellemi?tir. George Kennan ve di?er birçoklar?n?n da i?aret etti?i gibi, sava? (?kinci Dünya Sava??) sonras? dönemde dünyada 5 temel endüstriyel üretim merkezi olu?mu?tur: ABD, Sovyetler Birli?i, Birle?ik Krall?k, K?ta Avrupa’s? ve Kuzeydo?u Asya. Üçüncü Dünya Sava??’n? önlemek için, ABD, Sovyetler Birli?i’ni izole ederek, di?er üç bölge ile ili?kiler geli?tirmeye gayret etmi?tir. O tarihten beri, Amerikan askerleri de Avrupa, Asya ve daha birçok co?rafyada aktif olarak bulunmaktad?r. Bu dönemden ba?layarak, dünyada ekonomik, toplumsal ve çevreyle ilgili (ekolojik) ba??ml?l?k da h?zla artm??t?r. 1970 y?l?na gelindi?inde, ekonomik küreselle?me, 1914 y?l?nda Birinci Dünya Sava?? ba?lamadan önceki seviyesine gelmeyi ba?arm??t?r.
Bu dönemde, ABD, genel anlam?yla serbest piyasa ekonomileri ve aç?k rejimleri desteklemesine kar??n, düzeni korumak amac?yla s?k s?k diktatörlüklere de destek vermi? ve müttefiklerine kendi ç?karlar?na uygun politikalar empoze edebilmi?tir. Bu ilk on y?llarda, ABD, askeri aç?dan hegemon konumuna da ula?amam??t?r; zira Sovyetler Birli?i, askeri olarak ABD’yi dengeleyen bir di?er süper-güç durumundad?r. Ayr?ca en güçlü siyasal aktör olmas?na kar??n, ABD, Çin’in komünizme kaybedilmesini, Almanya’n?n bölünmesini, Kore’deki beraberli?i, Rusya’n?n Sovyet blo?undaki isyanlar? güçle bast?rmas?n?, Küba’daki komünist zaferi ve Vietnam’daki ba?ar?s?zl??? önleyememi?tir. Bu y?llarda, ABD’deki önemli bir tart??ma konusu ise, zengin durumdaki ülkelerin güvenli?i için kendilerinin para harcamas? olmu?tur. Bu konuda partiler aras?nda farkl?l?klar ve çe?itli m?r?ldanmalar ortaya ç?ksa da, 70 y?ll?k tecrübe sonucunda, 21. yüzy?l ba?lar?nda ABDde liberal düzenin korunmas?na yönelik genel bir uzla?? olu?mu?tur.
Günümüze kadar, bu düzen, hiçbir zaman ciddi anlamda sorgulanmam??t?r. Ancak ABD’nin yeni Ba?kan? olan Donald Trump, bu liberal küresel düzeni s?k s?k ele?tirmekte ve ABD’nin ulus-devletlerle yapaca?? ikili anla?malara dayal? bir düzenden çok daha kârl? ç?kaca??n? iddia etmektedir. Ba?ka baz? uzmanlar ise, Asya’da olu?an Çin ve Hindistan gibi devasa ekonomiler nedeniyle, küresel anlamda bir güç dengesi döneminin hâlihaz?rda zaten ba?lad???n? ve eski düzenin devam edemeyece?ini belirtmektedirler. Birtak?m di?er analistler ise, teknolojik, toplumsal ve siyasal geli?meler nedeniyle, devlet-d??? aktörlerin çok güçlendi?i yeni bir düzenin son y?llarda kurulmaya ba?land???n? iddia etmektedirler. Dolay?s?yla, ?kinci Dünya Sava?? sonras?nda kurulan liberal yeni dünya düzeni, ilk kez bu kadar ciddi ?ekilde ele?tirilmektedir. Nyea göre esas mesele ise ?udur; bu düzen ya?ayabilecek midir?
Kamu mallar?, herkese fayda sa?layan metalard?r. Ulusal düzeyde, bunlar büyük ölçüde hükümetler taraf?ndan kar??lan?r; insanlar ve mal-mülkleri için güvenlik, ekonomik altyap? ve temiz bir çevre bunlara örnek gösterilebilir. Uluslararas? bir düzen ya da hükümetin yoklu?unda, temiz çevre, küresel finansal istikrar, denizlerin ticarete aç?k olmas? gibi küresel düzeydeki unsurlar, en güçlü ülke taraf?ndan kurulan koalisyonlar arac?l???yla sa?lan?r. E?er en güçlü ülke bunlar? sa?layamazsa, bu gibi metalar üretilemez ve tüm devletler ve halklar kaybetmeye ba?lar.
Günümüzde, baz? dü?ünürler, küresel liberal düzene yönelik en büyük tehlikenin, her zaman bir süper-güce uygun sorumluluklar üstlenmeyen Çin’in h?zl? yükseli?inden kaynakland???n? iddia etmektedirler. Bu dü?ünürlere göre, Çin, ilerleyen y?llarda ekonomik ve siyasal olarak ABD’den daha güçlü hale gelirse, küresel liberal düzenin sorumluluklar?n? üstlenmeyecek ve bunlar?n kendi ç?karlar? ile örtü?medi?ini dü?ünecektir. Ancak Nye’a göre, bu görü? iki sebeple hatal?d?r; ilk olarak, Çin’in ABD’yi k?sa vadede geçmesi mümkün de?ildir, ikincisi de, Çin, san?lan?n aksine, bu düzenin fayda ve öneminin fark?ndad?r.
?lk gerekçeye bak?l?rsa, Nye’a göre, Çin, ABD’yi k?sa vadede dünyan?n yeni süper-gücü olarak geçemeyecektir. Güç, di?erlerinden istedi?inizi alabilme/onlara istedi?inizi yapt?rabilme yetisini ifade eder ve ço?u zaman ödeme (para), güç kullanma ve cazibe gibi unsurlar? bar?nd?r?r. Çin ekonomisi, son y?llarda hakikaten göz al?c? büyüme oranlar?yla ve çok h?zl? bir ?ekilde geli?se de, halen ABD ekonomisinin yüzde 61’i dolaylar?ndad?r ve büyüme h?z? da yava?lamaktad?r. Ayr?ca Çin, gelecek y?llarda ABD’yi ekonomik olarak geçse bile, bu durum, jeopolitik mücadelenin yaln?zca bir aya??n? olu?turacakt?r. International Institute for Strategic Studies’in bir ara?t?rmas?na göre, ABD, askeri aç?dan Çin’den halen 4 kat daha fazla para harcamaktad?r ve bu ülkeye k?yasla askeri aç?dan çok daha güçlüdür. Cazibe (yumu?ak güç) aç?s?ndan bak?ld???nda ise, Londra merkezli dan??manl?k firmas? Portland’?n ara?t?rmas?na göre, ABD dünyada 1., Çin ise ancak 28. s?radad?r. Çin, ilerleyen y?llarda ABD’yi yakalamak için hamleler yapacak olsa da, ABD de, kaliteli üniversiteleri, nüfus gücü, ucuz enerjiye eri?imi ve ileri teknoloji firmalar? sayesinde göreceli avantaj?n? ve üstünlü?ünü koruyacakt?r.
?kinci gerekçeye geçersek, Çin, mevcut dünya düzeninden san?ld???ndan çok daha fazla fayda sa?lamaktad?r. Birle?mi? Milletler Güvenlik Konseyi’nde veto hakk? olan 5 daimi üyeden biri olan Çin, Dünya Ticaret Örgütü (WTO) ve Uluslararas? Para Fonu’na (?MF) da kabul edilmi? bir ülkedir. Yine Çin, BM Bar?? Gücü operasyonlar?na en büyük maddi destek sa?layan ikinci ülke durumundad?r ve daha ?imdiden Ebola ve iklim de?i?ikli?i gibi konularda önemli sorumluluklar üstlenmi?tir. Dolay?s?yla, Çin, san?lan?n aksine bu düzeni y?kmaya de?il, bu düzen içerisinde daha fazla etki sahibi olmaya çal??maktad?r.
Nyea göre, 21. yüzy?l ilerledikçe, bu düzende önemli de?i?iklikler de ya?anacakt?r. Çin ve Hindistan gibi ülkeler büyümeye devam edecek, ABD’nin dünya ekonomisindeki pay? da kesin olarak dü?ecektir. Ancak Çin de dâhil olmak üzere hiçbir ülke, ABD’nin yerine geçemeyecektir. Ayr?ca, güç, devletlerden devlet-d??? aktörlere kaymaya do?ru da devam edecektir. Enformatik Devrimi’nin do?al bir sonucu olarak, finansal istikrar, iklim de?i?ikli?i, terörizm, salg?n hastal?klar ve sibergüvenlik gibi konular, devletlerin bu konularda yetersiz kalmalar? neticesinde, tüm dünyan?n ortak gündem maddeleri olacakt?r. Bu karma??kl?k devam ettikçe, özel kurulu?lar, ?irketler, sosyal hareketler ve terör örgütleri daha da güçleneceklerdir. Bu sayede, geleneksel bürokratik yap?lar güç kaybedecek ve di?er aktörleri de dikkate almak zorunda kalacaklard?r. Böyle bir ortamda, ABD, dünyadaki tek süper-güç olarak kalmaya devam etse bile, uluslararas? sorumluluklar? tek ba??na üstlenecek güçte olmayacakt?r. Örne?in, finansal istikrar? ABD’nin tek ba??na sa?layabilmesi art?k mümkün de?ildir. ?klim de?i?ikli?i ve deniz seviyelerinin yükselmesi konusunda da, ABD, tek ba??na ba?ar?l? bir mücadele yürütemez. S?n?rlar?n kolayl?kla delindi?i ve silahlardan teröristlere, uyu?turucudan salg?n hastal?klara kadar her?eyin kolayl?kla yasad??? yollardan ülkelere sokulabildi?i bir ortamda, devletlerin daha farkl? yumu?ak güç mekanizmalar? ve a?lar kurarak, bu tehditlerle mücadele etmek için yeni kurumlar olu?turmalar? ?artt?r.
Buna kar??n, Washington, birçok unsuru halen daha kendi ba??na sa?layabilecek güce sahiptir. Denizlerin ticarete aç?k olmas? konusunda ABD Donanmas?, küresel finansal ekonomik istikrar aç?s?ndan da Amerikan Merkez Bankas?’n?n (FED) yapabilece?i pek çok ?ey vard?r. Ancak ABD’nin ba?ar?l? olabilmesi için, di?er ülkelerle i?birli?i tesis etmesi ?artt?r. Bu ba?lamda, art?k dünya siyaseti art? toplaml? oyun (positive-sum game) haline gelmi?tir ve s?f?r toplaml? oyun (zero-sum game) de?ildir. Bu do?rultuda, di?er ülkelerle ba?lant?l? olmak çok önemli bir unsur haline gelmi?tir. Lowy Institute’ün ara?t?rmas?na göre, dünyada en fazla Büyükelçilik, Konsolosluk ve Misyonu olan ülke ABD’dir. Ancak 21. yüzy?lda küreselle?meye ve aç?kl??a en büyük tehdit, sistemin d???ndan de?il, içinden gelmektedir ve bu da popülizmdir.
ABD, dünya istikrar?n? sa?lamak aç?s?ndan en avantajl? ülke olmaya devam etse de, bunu yapmaktan vazgeçebilir. Nitekim Afganistan ve Irak sava?lar? sonras?nda 2013 y?l?nda yap?lan bir ara?t?rma göstermi?tir ki, Amerikan halk?n?n yüzde 52’si ABD’nin kendi sorunlar?yla ilgilenmesini ve dünyan?n geri kalan?na müdahil olmamas?n? istemektedir. 2016 ABD Ba?kanl?k seçimleri de, küreselle?meye yönelik olarak bu ülkede geli?en sa? popülizmin gücünü göstermi?tir. Bu tepkiler, hem ekonomik, hem de kültürel düzeydedir. Uluslararas? rekabet nedeniyle i?lerini kaybetmi? i?siz veya dar gelirli Amerikal?lar seçimde Donald Trump’? desteklerken, di?er etnik gruplar?n artan güçleri ve say?lar? nedeniyle avantajl? sosyokültürel konumlar?n? kaybetmekten endi?e eden beyaz erkekler de kültürel sebeplerle Trump seçmeni olmu?lard?r. Nitekim ABD Nüfus Bürosu’na göre, 30 y?l içerisinde beyazlar ABD’de ço?unluk ?rk olma özelli?ini kaybedecektir. Bu durum, Trump’?n seçmenlerini etkileyen ve ?rkç? argümanlara hakl?l?k kazand?ran bir endi?e unsuru olmu?tur.
Avrupa ve ABD’de yükseli?e geçen popülist dalga, bir önceki yüzy?lda küreselle?meyi sonland?ran olaylara benzer ?ekilde, sars?nt?l? yeni bir dönemi i?aret etmektedir. Ancak ko?ullar oldukça farkl? oldu?u için, bu noktada iki tarihsel süreç aras?nda benzerlik kurmak sorunlu olabilir. Nitekim sars?nt?lara kar??n, önceki yüzy?ldan farkl? olarak, günümüzde yerel ve uluslararas? düzeyde birçok önlem mekanizmas? ve tampon unsuru da vard?r. Brexit ve Trump seçimi, bu popülist dalgan?n geçici olmad???n? aç?kça gösterse de, 1930’lar gibi dünya sisteminde ekonomik ve jeopolitik bir kaosu öngörmek henüz yersizdir. Ancak küreselle?meyi savunan elitlerin, art?k e?itsizlik konusuna daha fazla önem vermeleri zaruridir. Seçim kampanyas? döneminde Trans Pasifik Ortakl??? ve TTIP gibi konularda ele?tiriler gündeme gelse de, ABDde, 1930’lar gibi bir içe kapanma (izolasyonizm) dönemi beklenmemektedir. Zira 2016 Haziran ay?nda Chicago Council on Global Affairs taraf?ndan yap?lan bir ara?t?rma, Amerikal?lar?n yüzde 65’inin küreselle?menin kendi lehlerine oldu?unu dü?ündü?ünü göstermektedir. 2015 y?l?nda yap?lan bir Pew ara?t?rmas? da, Amerikal?lar?n yüzde 51’inin göç olgusunun ülkelerini güçlendirdi?ini dü?ündüklerini ortaya koymaktad?r.
ABD, dünyada düzeni sa?lamak konusunda gücünü de henüz kaybetmemi?tir. ABD, bugün savunma ve d?? politikas? için toplam bütçesinin yüzde 4’ünden daha az?n? harcamaktad?r. Bu, ABDnin So?uk Sava?’?n en yüksek noktas?nda yapt??? harcaman?n yar?s? kadard?r. ABD’nin kurdu?u ittifaklar da, ekonomik aç?dan san?ld??? kadar zararl? de?ildir. Örne?in, Amerikan askerlerinin Japonya’da bulunmas?, ABD içerisinde bulunmalar?ndan daha az masrafl?d?r. Bunlar d???nda, ABD’nin yak?n geçmi?teki askeri müdahalelerin yaratt??? ho?nutsuzluk, ABD’nin dünya düzenini koruma konusunda daha fazla sorumluluk almas?n? engelleyen bir faktördür. Her ne kadar Ortado?u gibi bölgelerde uzun y?llar sürecek karma?a beklentisi olsa da, i?gal politikalar?n?n olumsuz tepkiler do?urdu?u da dü?ünülerek, bu ülke taraf?ndan ilerleyen y?llarda daha farkl? yöntemler denenebilecektir.
Siyasi bölünmü?lük ve demagoji de, son y?llarda ABD’nin küresel sorumluluklar? aç?s?ndan önemli bir sorun haline gelmeye ba?lam??t?r. ABD Senato’sunun son dönemde yasa yapmakta ve onaylamakta zorlanmas?, ülkedeki bölünmü? siyasi yap?y? aç?kça gözler önüne sermektedir. Buna kar??n, ABD, daha uzun y?llar dünyan?n en güçlü askeri yap?s? olarak kalacakt?r. Yükselen Çin ve gücü azalan ve kom?ular?n? tehdit etmeye ba?layan Rusya, asl?nda dünyada ABD’nin güçlü askeri varl???na duyulan ihtiyac? artt?ran geli?melerdir. Bu ba?lamda, ABD’nin Asya ve Avrupa’daki askeri güvenlik anla?malar? ilerleyen y?llarda daha da önemli hale gelecektir.
Son olarak, küreselle?meyi sadece ekonomik anla?malarla s?n?rlamak da do?ru bir yakla??m de?ildir. Küreselle?me, ulus-a?an i?birlikleri tesis etmek ve herkesçe benimsenen kurallar koymaya dayal?d?r. Bu do?rultuda, küresel anlamda liderlik, zorbal?k ve di?erleri üstünde hâkimiyet kurmak demek de?ildir. Washington’?n küresel liderli?i ve istikrar sa?lay?c? rolü, ilerleyen y?llarda belki de hiç olmad??? kadar istenen ve gerekli bir unsur haline gelebilir. Amerikal?lar ve di?er halklar, istikrar ve güvenli?in ne kadar önemli ve gerekli oldu?unu, belki de bunu kaybedince daha iyi anlayacaklard?r; ama o zaman da çok geç olabilir…
Yrd. Doç. Dr. Ozan ÖRMEC?
[1] Web sitesi için; http://joenye.com/.
Wikipedia - https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Joseph_Nye
[2] “The FP Top 100 Global Thinkers”, Foreign Policy, Eri?im Tarihi: 05.01.2017, Eri?im Adresi: http://foreignpolicy.com/2011/11/28/the-fp-top-100-global-thinkers-4/.
[3] “Who are the top international-relations specialists? Surprise! Scholars have a very different view than policymakers do”, Foreign Policy, Eri?im Tarihi: 05.01.2017, Eri?im Adresi: http://ricks.foreignpolicy.com/posts/2014/09/25/who_are_the_top_international_relations_specialists.
[4] Buradan okunabilir; https://www.foreignaffairs.com/articles/2016-12-12/will-liberal-order-survive.
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Tuesday, May 30, 2017
Is it Important to Get Three Free and Five Free Nail Polish The Science
Is it Important to Get Three Free and Five Free Nail Polish The Science
Ive had a few questions recently about two marketing buzzphrases in the nail polish business: "Three Free" and "Five Free".
"Three Free" nail polish is advertised as nail polish without Dibutyl Phthalate, Toluene, and Formaldehyde. "Five Free" nail polish is advertised as nail polish without Dibutyl Phthalate, Toluene, Formaldehyde, Formaldehyde Resin, and Camphor.
Theres a lot of scary shit written online about all of these chemicals, but without a lot of facts backing them up. So, what are these ingredients, and do you actually need to avoid them?
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| Image Source: https://www.flickr.com/photos/stevendepolo/ |
Dibutyl Phthalate
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| Dibutyl Phthalate Image Source: http://www.drugfuture.com/Pharmacopoeia/USP32/pub/data/images/v32270/cas-84-74-2.gif |
What Is It?
DBP and other phthalates are what is known as "plasticizers". These are additives that improve the plasticity of a substance.
Why Is It In Nail Polish?
What happens when your nail polish isnt flexible? It CHIPS. DBP in nail polish gives a longer wear-time.
Why Are People Freaked Out?
Phthalates are a controversial group as a whole, and DBP is probably one of the nastier versions. It affects testicular differentiation in frogs and fetal rats, and it has been hypothesized that it might have an effect on human fetal testicular development as well. There is also some evidence that it may disrupt thyroid receptor activity.
What Does the Science Say?
As with all things, the dose makes the poison. (As does the subject, since most of you are probably not male fetuses.) DBP exposure is considered to be acceptable at a rate of 0.01 mg per kg of body weight. I cant find any specific studies that look at he exposure you would face based on typical nail polish use, so its not clear whether adults will hit that threshold.
Personally, if there is one nail polish ingredient on this list that I would skip, this is the one. Luckily, for many of you, you probably dont have to do a lot to escape it. The European Union has banned the substance in cosmetics, and the only American producer, Eastman Chemical Company, stopped manufacturing DBP in 2011 (although it is still imported by a few companies). Im currently unable to find a single major nail polish brand that is still using the substance (although if you are aware of one, feel free to leave it in the comments below).
Its also worth noting that, given the research on fetal development, it is probably more important to avoid DBP if you are pregnant.
Toluene
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| Toluene Image Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/2/2e/Toluol.svg/230px-Toluol.svg.png |
What Is It?
Also referred to as phenylmethane, methylbenzene, or toluol, is what makes some nail polish smell like paint thinners. It is commonly used solvent.
Why Is It In Nail Polish?
Because toluene easily dissolves a wide variety of substances, using it as a nail polish solvent gives you a smooth, attractive application.
Why Are People Freaked Out?
Inhaling high doses of toluene results in headache, nausea, dizziness, drowsiness and confusion. It is also a minor skin irritant. Very high doses may harm the kidneys.
What Does the Science Say?
At the moment, concerns mostly center around inhalation of high doses. Solvent abuse ("huffing") or high levels of exposure in an industrial environment are the most significant concerns, rather than traditional nail polish use.
"Formaldehyde"
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| Formaldehyde Image Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Formaldehyde-2D.svg |
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| Methanediol Image Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Methanediol-2D.png |
What Is It?
Although nail polish companies commonly talk about "formaldehyde", formaldehyde is definitely not in your nail polish for one simple reason: formaldehyde is a gas. Formaldehyde definitely is toxic to all animals, causing death at high doses. It is also a known carcinogen, causing nasal cancer in rats.
If you are applying gas to your fingernails, we are not talking about the same products.
When we talk about "formaldehyde" in nail products, were presumably talking about methanediol (also known as methylene glycol). When you add water to formaldehyde, you go from an aldehyde that is a gas to a diol (meaning there are two OH groups) that is a liquid. It is a completely different substance.
Why Is It In Nail Polish?
Formaldehyde has never been in nail polish. Methanediol is a cross-linking agent that stiffens and hardens nails. Thus, it is commonly used in nail hardeners.
Why Are People Freaked Out?
People have incorrectly conflated formaldehyde and methanediol due to cosmetic mislabeling.
What Does the Science Say?
It is completely incorrect to conflate the dangers associated with formaldehyde with methanediol. Methanediol is considered by the FDA to be safe up to 5% concentration. Most manufacturers use levels between 0.5% and 2%, well within the safe limits. Even at higher doses, the primary concerns are skin irritation and allergies.
Formaldehyde Resin (Tosylamide/Toluenesulfonamide/TSF Resin)
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| Image source: http://theorganicsolution.files.wordpress.com/2012/09/p-toluenesulfonamide.jpg |
What Is It?
Despite the scary-sounding name, formaldehyde resin is also not the same thing as formaldehyde. Formaldehyde is used during the production of the substance, but is completely consumed by the reaction. Formaldehyde resin is a polymer, meaning the molecules stack together to make a durable film.
Why Is It In Nail Polish?
The resin helps the polish adhere to the nail, ensuring it wont peel or flake.
Why Are People Freaked Out?
Again, the word "formaldehyde" is scary.
What Does the Science Say?
Some research suggests that formaldehyde resin may be a concern for those who have significant levels of allergies or who are prone to contact dermatitis. Of course, all people should stick to painting their nails and not large chunks of their skin. Otherwise, despite the scary name, there is no evidence of harm.
Camphor
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| Camphor Image Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/0/02/Camphor_structure.png |
What Is It?
Camphor is a naturally-occurring chemical known for its strong scent. It has been used in European, Arabic, and Indian cuisine at various points in history. It gives a cooling feeling on the skin and is the active ingredient in Vicks VapoRub.
Why Is It In Nail Polish?
Camphor is another plasticizer, keeping your nails chip-free.
Why Are People Freaked Out?
Truly, I have no idea. Camphor is a poison when consumed in large doses. Adults typically see toxic effects after ingesting 2 g of pure camphor, with 4 g being the lethal dose.
What Does the Science Say?
Dont eat your nail polish.
What does it mean?
If you are buying standard nail polish brands in the United States or Europe and you are using them as intended (i.e. you are not eating or huffing them and youre putting them on your nail, rather than, say, your face), youre probably okay. If you have a tendency towards significant skin sensitivities (for example, if a nail polish has given you contact dermatitis in the past), you may want to be more careful around a few of these ingredients.
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Monday, May 29, 2017
Is a College Degree Worth it The Wrong Debate Continues
Is a College Degree Worth it The Wrong Debate Continues
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There are two dominant views concerning the value of a college degree currently circulating in American culture. One view is that on average, people with college degrees make much more money over their lifetime than people without degrees. The other view is that the over-production of college degrees has deflated their value, and we now have taxi drivers and baristas with PhDs. I have often presented a third view, which is that a value of a college degree should not be equated with future earning power or job prospects, and instead of seeing higher education as a private good, we must see it as a public good.
The first problem with the idea that a college degree means higher earnings is that this correlation can have multiple causes. We know that on average, students with wealthy parents and more social connections to high-paying jobs graduate from college at a higher rate. Likewise, SAT scores are highly correlated with the wealth of the parents, and college rankings are highly correlated with SAT scores, and even financial aid is now often linked to SAT scores. The system as a whole thus reinforces class privilege, and so it may be that people who attain college degrees earn more because they start off with more and are given more opportunities and advantages as they move through the education and job systems.
On the other side of the coin, the over-production of college degrees can be directly related to the under-supply of good jobs. What we are seeing in many different job markets is that due to the lack of unionization, the increase in automation, and the globalization of labor and consumption, employers are able to depress wages and benefits. One interesting test case for this theory is in higher education itself where we have witnessed a significant decrease in “good” jobs. In just a few decades, we have moved from a system where the majority of the teachers had full-time, tenure-track positions to a situation where the majority of the faculty have part-time, non-tenure-track positions. During this period, enrollments have increased, so we cannot say that there is a decrease in the demand for people with PhDs. Instead, universities and colleges have decided to de-professionalize the professoriate. As I have pointed out before, one cause for this problem is that the same institutions that produce the PhD degree do not require a PhD to teach undergraduate students.
In other fields, this casualization of the labor force has been pushed by the use of technology to reduce compensation. Due to the Web and the new media economy, professionals in journalism, entertainment, and other services have been replaced by citizens who are willing to work for little or nothing. This reduction in earnings was once countered by the recognition that workers in a domestic economy must be paid enough to participate in the local consumer economy, but now in a globalized economy, there is always another person willing to consume our products.
What this analysis tells us is that we cannot expect higher education to fix our employment problems since so many of the labor issues are derived from the power of employers to reduce the compensation and benefits of their workers. Just as the current funding model of higher education is rigged to reinforce class inequality, our failure to protect workers from destructive labor practices functions to enhance economic stratification. When we throw high student debt into this mix, we see that our entire economic and social system is programmed against the future. What we need is better labor laws and better employers. Once all of the income gains stop going to the top 1%, we will see more good jobs, but education alone cannot fix this issue.
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Je suis à toi Monsters in the Dark 3 5 by Pepper Winters epub
Je suis à toi Monsters in the Dark 3 5 by Pepper Winters epub
Description
“Life taught me an eternal love will demand the worst sacrifices. A transcendent love will split your soul, cleaving you into pieces. A love this strong doesn’t grant you sweetness—it grants you pain. And in that pain is the greatest pleasure of all.”
Q made me the happiest esclave in the world. He gave me his heart, his empire, his ruthless unforgiving love. And life finally left us in peace.
A man like my maître has special needs though, growing stronger as our lives intertwine. The only way to survive his monster is to agree to all his desires.
Including his latest wish.
I’m his.
And I won’t refuse
Download now
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Saturday, May 27, 2017
It was the best of Wednesdays it was the worst of Wednesdays
It was the best of Wednesdays it was the worst of Wednesdays
Remember how I said Id have more details regarding my upcoming appearance at River City Bicycles in Portland? Well now I do, and theyre fantastic:
You can find out more on a popular social network called Facebook, and I hope to see you there. Its been a few years since Ive been to Portland, and Im looking forward to returning since the more time that passes the more Im convinced Portland doesnt really exist and that I simply dreamt it.
And dont forget University Bookstore in Seattle on June 17th and Rivendell (or, more accurately, the Marriott) in Walnut Creek, CA on June 18th.
As you can see, Im taking the Bay Area and the Pacific Northwest by storm, or at the very least by light rain.
Moving on, yesterday we took a look at an article about the quasi-ineffable notion of "ride quality," and in the comments section of that article someone shared a link to this story from a 1996 issue of Bicycle Guide:
Basically, Antonio Mondonico made seven otherwise identical bikes from different tubing to see if riders could tell the difference, and heres the upshot:
If the numbers on the bikes were switched around and I were to test each bike again, my guess is that Id come up with different tubing preferences. I think my ride impressions were essentially random.
Though obviously the bike media prefers to pretend this isnt the case because otherwise the glossy magazines would look like this:
I should point out Id happily subscribe to that magazine, but Im probably in the minority, and I suspect manufacturers (or, more accurately, decal designers) of plastic bicycles would be loath to advertise in it.
This is not to say there are no differences between bicycles, because of course there are. Its just that these differences are largely matters of components and geometry. Consider Stokbikes, for example, which is the fixie that works like a flounder:
Stokbikes is the branchild of Michael, a.k.a. "Michael the Bicycle Man:"
"Im Michael, and I love bicycles. They call me Michael the Bicycle Man."
I bet they do.
Cue his theme, sung to the tune of "Popeye the Sailor Man:"
Im Michael the Bicycle Man
Im living in Amsterdam
My smugness unblemished
Cause Im speaking Flemish
Im Michael the Bicycle Man!
Yeah, I know he lives in Utrecht and not Amsterdam, and that Utrecht is not in Flanders, but whatever. Im American, and therefore stupid. Plus, I was afraid if I made it too guttural I might blow out my epiglottis while trying to sing it.
Anyway, apparently thin bikes are the new fat bike:
How thin? Twenty-one euro-inches to be exact:
Now thats thin:
("Only 21 centimetri wide? Ha! How you say, Eees it eeen yet?")
Thanks to Stokbikes, you can now keep your fixie behind the sofa, in the coat closet, or even inside your in-wall ironing board hideaway. The secret is the folding pedals, which are made from recycled Motorola Star Tacs:
And which are also magnetic for some reason:
As well as the rotating stem:
Which of course has already been done, because everything in the world has already been done.
Anyway, now you can store your flat bike flush against the wall of your airy, fashionable office or storefront:
And dont forget to add a wall peg to hang your collapsible helmet from, Flat Stanley.
Finally, in far more depressing news, youve probably heard about this by now:
Five bicyclists were pronounced dead at the scene, and the others were hospitalized with serious injuries, Mr. Getting said. All of the victims were adults, he said.
Three law enforcement agencies received calls about a pickup truck driving erratically about 30 minutes before the crash, Mr. Getting said.
Note the headline says "Pickup Truck Crashes Into Them," perpetuating the notion that motor vehicles are naturally occurring free-roaming organisms that occasionally run into people of their own volition--though this is not even remotely as bad as calling the incident a "biking accident:"
Wow, what a bunck of fucking morons. Not just "accident," but "biking accident." These are the same morons, I might add, who thought Bicycle Day was a cycling holiday:.@TODAYshow and @NBCNews enter the #crashnotaccident Hall of Infamy for the Kalamazoo bike deaths pic.twitter.com/2NXdRZL8Rv— Darren B (@bikepedantic) June 8, 2016
Anyway, drivers are mowing people down constantly, and its worth noting that it takes what is essentially a mass murder to get the national media to notice--and even then, its a "biking accident." Meanwhile, American drivers are killing over 30,000 people a year (themselves included of course), yet there are more security measures in place for watching HBO GO than there are for getting behind the wheel of a motor vehicle. At this point you should have to file your driving plans beforehand and enter an access code in order to start your car, but instead we get Chevy ads in articles about someone killing five cyclists with a Chevy:
Fuck it, Im leasing a...nevermind.
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Friday, May 26, 2017
Joggers Are The New Leggings
Joggers Are The New Leggings
Having made ten squillion pairs, Im pretty much over the Playful Kitty leggings pattern from Ottobre magazine 4/2014. Not only was I filling Doloress wardrobe with them, but because they were so quick to whip up, I made quite a few pairs for her friends when gifts were called for. The ruched detailing of the Green Lines pattern (from Ottobre 1/2014) was a nice variation on the theme, and that almost became my new favourite variant. But the Streaky Legs sweatpants pattern seems to have snuck in there and become the one that I reach for when knit trousers are called for now!
Pattern:
The Streaky Legs pattern from Ottobre 1/2015 (pictured below) is a very casual unisex trouser pattern that goes up to size 92. Because Dolores is a bit skinnier than some kids her height, I used the size 92 for length but the size down (86) for width. This approach worked well during my first foray into making them when I used the size 86 for length but size 80 for width. As I was making that first pair, I felt some concern that the dropped crotch style might be uncomfortable or annoying to wear. Although Doloress language skills arent quite up to giving me a full garment review yet, she hasnt expressed any dislike and they dont seem to impede her in any way.
The pattern consists of just three pieces: a front, a back and the ankle cuff. Both the front and back are cut on the fold, but a more economical fabric lay may be achieved by cutting the back piece with a centre back seam instead. I did that with the red rainbow pair you can see in this post. The addition of the CB seam also gives an easy indication as to which way round you should go when getting the wriggler dressed.
Fabric:
Although designed to be sweatpants, I reckon this pattern could be made in a variety of knit fabrics: jersey, interlock, Ponte de Roma/double knit (BTW, can anyone tell me what the difference is?), sweatshirting and french terry.
Cream Jammie Bottoms:
Recently weve been dipping our toes in the scary world of potty training, and it is becoming clear that separates pyjamas are going to be much more useful than the all-in-one type that she is busy growing out of anyhow. I always offer her the opportunity to sit on the potty in the morning (TMI for non-parents?!) and I can see that jammies that she can wriggle free from herself are going to lead to more success going forwards. I saw some suitable separates pyjama sets in a charity shop recently, but I decided to leave those for another parent who cant sew to snap up, and went home to search my stash for suitable fabric. The fun thing about sewing pyjamas is that you can use fabric that wouldnt be right for day wear. I probably wouldnt put a toddler in white or cream trousers as theyll become a stained hot mess within seconds, but cream pyjamas are likely to come into contact with nothing more stain-making than a bit of porridge.
The fabric I used was some luxurious and slinky organic cotton interlock from Offset Warehouse that they kindly sent me a couple of years ago to try. The contrast cuffs are made from scraps from the stash. Because both the front and back pieces were cut on the fold for these, I stitched little ribbon bows to the centre fronts to distinguish the front from the back at a glance. At least thats the theory. Rather than making matching pyjama tops from scratch, I turned some hand-me-down onesies/vests into T-shirts by cutting off the bottom and adding bands of contrast knit (see above). I now need to make a giant stack of these, along with some more pyjama bottoms, so that doing panic-laundry doesnt entirely take over my life. (BTW, here are some more ideas for reworking onesies/vests.)
Two-Tone Turquoise Joggers:
I made the above joggers for Doloress friend Arthurs second birthday. I know that Tanya, Arthurs mum, really appreciates handmade clothing that is well made above cheap shop-bought stuff any day, so I knew Id be on safe territory with these. The fabric I used was a very small piece of amazing turquoise interlock that was given to me by a student that I taught at one of Tillys Coco classes. Interlock is basically double-sided jersey, and this fabric was light turquoise on one side and a deeper turquoise on the other. The student (gutted I cant remember her name) used the deeper tone for the body and sleeves of her Coco top, and the lighter tone as contrasting cuffs and collar, which looked a-mazing.
Following that students lead, I planned to use the deeper tone for the trousers with the lighter tone for the cuffs. However, I couldnt quite fit both the front and back pieces on the remaining fabric, so necessity being the mother of invention and all, I had to make the front piece with panels so I used the contrasting tones for some cool colour-blocking action (seen more easily in the above picture). I literally wouldnt have thought to do that if I hadnt had to! I topstitched the seam allowance down where the panels join so it wouldnt feel too annoying around Arthurs knees, and I really like that row of visible stitching.
Rainbow Joggers:
Ages ago my best mate bought Dolores this phenomenal 1970s-esque rainbow batwing top (its from the Little Bird range, before you ask). Its still a little big but Im determined to get maximum use from its awesomeness. I love rainbow elements on clothing and was inspired to make a cosy pair of joggers that she can wear with this top featuring even more rainbows!
Using left-over scraps from the Girl Charlee sweatshirt lining of my sailboat raincoat, this is the warmest and snuggliest pair Ive made from this pattern to date. The sweatshirt fabric, however, has very little stretch so after cutting the cuffs from the same fabric, I abandoned them as I dont think shed have been able to get her little feet in and out! Instead I found a scrap left over from the best denim skirt ever made by me, which is way stretchy enough. The rainbow trim has been in my stash for longer than I remember, and I simply stitched two lengths down the side covering the side seams. I LOVE the combo of red, denim and rainbows! It reminds me of a childhood spent watching Sesame Street!
Thoughts:
Im really happy with all these versions of this pattern, and have almost got it out of my system now. When a pattern has to be traced out, like the Ottobre ones do, I feel it is a waste to only use that pattern once. I may have gone too far in the other direction now! But it is fun to see how one pattern can make such different looking garments, for different uses or to be worn by different people. However, Im now using the largest size of this pattern (92), so unless I dabble in some pattern grading, Im going to have to move on to a new pattern obsession soon.
Cost:
Pattern: £0 (the magazine originally cost £10, but having already used this pattern before as well as others from the same edition, Ive decided that its already paid its way)
Fabric: £0 (cream organic jersey given to me by Offset Warehouse, turquoise interlock given to me by a student, red sweatshirt fabric given to me by Girl Charlee, all cuff fabric from my stash)
Ribbon bows: £0 (I got them free back when I was at university and have had them in my stash ever since)
Rainbow trim: £0 (I probably bought this with real life money at some point, but so long ago that I cant remember and therefore Im declaring it £=nothing)
Total: £0
Hurrah! Everything came together to make five useful toddler garments for nothing but my time and energy, and the power needed to run my sewing machine.
What about you? Have you fallen in love with a quick and easy sewing pattern recently? How many have you made and do you have more lined up? Can you recommend a simple pattern that is great for making gifts, either for kids or adults?
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