Its Friday and No Quiz Instead Im Just Gonna Blog About Bikes
First of all, heres a self-serving reminder to get your limited edition bike-riding hat!
(If you have any comments about how you dont like the color or anything like that please direct them here and I can assure you well see to them immediately.)
I dont know how limited they are, but presumably theyre still available because I havent heard otherwise. Also, this discount code is good for 10% off until the end of the month:
BSNYC2787
So there you go.
Oh, also, while were talking about caps, I have some Yehuda Moon comic books at home:
Only 15 copies left of Vol 1. If youve thought of getting (or gifting) a set of Yehuda Moon books, now is the time! https://t.co/zU1mhgHk54 pic.twitter.com/ZzCW71d97j
— Yehuda Moon (@YehudaMoon) October 14, 2016
And the other day one of my seventeen (17) kids put on this cap with the brim over his face and said, "Look, Im that guy from the comic book!"
Thats how you know a kids growing up in a bike house, and hopefully when he grows up he can find a good shrink to help him undo all the damage.
In other news, the Wall Street Journals Jason Gay had the exclusive on Robin Williamss bicycle collection, which is now being auctioned:
When Robin Williams died, the world lost a great comedian, and the sport of professional cycling lost its only remaining fan.
In any case, if youre a bike dork (which, if youre reading this blog you are, sorry to break it to you) youll no doubt find his collection fascinating. It spans years, and Ive been totally nerding out on it. Indeed, you could start a museum with the mountain bikes alone:
Plus, if youre a recovering Fred like I am, youll find yourself nostalgic for bikes you once coveted. Hes got all the sweet team replica bikes from the EPO era, like this Bianchi:
Looks like it even has the embroidered Il Pirata saddle:
Id argue that this era represents the pinnacle of the road racing bicycle: pretty much everything was still made of metal (with the exception of the fork), the headsets were threadless but not integrated, the bottom brackets were threaded but not integrated, and the shifting was integrated. Its even got a square taper crank. I mean sure, its no Hollowtech II (which is and will always be the worlds greatest bottom bracket interface), but Ill take square taper over all this press-fit crap any day.
Oh yeah, and you didnt even have to charge anything.
Alas, its all been downhill from there. Have we really gained anything with the modern-day equivalent, apart from a bunch of batteries and proprietary fittings and a 100% price increase?
Id argue that we have not.
Sadly, I never owned that sweet Pantani replica, but I will admit I did own another team replica in the Robin Williams collection:
What can I say? I was blinded by lust for the crabon-accented Campagnolo Record group, as well as the then-still-kinda-edgy sloping top tube geometry. Sure, I could have done without all the Festina decals, but it turned out to be a non-issue as the frame cracked at the chainstay in less than a year.
(To their credit, Specialized promptly replaced it, but to their detriment they replaced it with an Allez frame with S-Works decals.)
And thats not the only bike Ive owned thats also represented in the Robin Williams collection--nor is it the most embarrassing. I also owned this monstrosity:
My excuse is one youll hear from many Freds, which is that its what our team was riding that year. Unlike the Festina bike, which at least looked pretty cool at the time, this piece of crap was ugly from Day 1. I could never come to terms with riding this thing, though I rode it anyway, and it wasnt long before the crabon top half of the frame started to separate from the aluminum bottom half of the frame at the head tube, complete with creaking sound. (A similar fate befell pretty much every one of these as I understand it.)
Specialized also replaced that frame for me, with this one, which to their credit was an actual full-crabon S-Works:
Note I moved the stupid Zertz seatpost over from the ungodly crab-O-luminum freak bike, only because I dont believe in putting metal posts in crabon frames (they seize, dontcha know, unless youre into torque wrenches and boutique assembly paste) and I wasnt about to buy a new one. This frame served me well for a number of seasons, until eventually I suspected maybe it was cracked:
Instead of verifying this I instead decided to end the cycle by stripping the bike of its parts and putting it in storage.
So if youre wondering why Im often dismissive of the hot new Fred bike technology, theres your answer.
But of course now weve entered a new era of Fred bikes. Now its all about #whatpressureyourunning, not to mention #whatwidthyourunning:
For years, the standard road bike tire size was 23mm. Thin, light and able to be pumped up to back-achingly high pressures, there was no need to experiment. Then science, endurance events, and gravel riding got in the mix. Science has now proven that wider tires actually have less rolling resistance than skinnier tires. Wider road tires provide a more forgiving ride and improve handling through a, you guessed it, wider contact patch that makes endurance riding safer, easier, and more accessible. Finally, gravel riding popularity brought on wider tires and the associated equipment to mute the bumps, take on the rocks, and provide some traction in the loose, dirt road conditions.
You know, this pisses me off. For years the bicycle industry has been telling us that the path to excellent ride quality and superior performance was expensive frame materials. And of these materials, ostensibly the best one was crabon fribé, since they could mold it into all sorts of stupid shapes and even put dumb little see-through inserts in it. (Like the ones you see above in my seatpost). Yet during this same period there was nary a mention of how tires affect ride quality, save from impassioned reviews about how this 23mm tire is more "supple" and "confidence-inspiring" than that 23mm tire.
So successful was this propaganda campaign that crabon fribé has pretty much completely taken over the Fred bike market--and only now that the takeover is complete and no Fred in their right mind would consider anything else are they telling Freds the truth, which is that its all about the tires, and fatter tires make for a better ride.
"Oh yeah, come on, SCIENCE says wider tires are better, where have you been?," says the bike review machine.
"Uh, reading your dumbass reviews of crabon bikes with skinny tires," say the Freds.
But its already too late for the poor Freds, who now think they need disc brakes to run the wider tires that are now de rigueur, even though they could have been riding on 28mm tires on their short-reach rim-brake Fred chariots all along. My plastic Specialized as pictured above took them happily, as does the Ritte on which I undertook my Brooks gravel extravaganza:
And to go even wider, all you need are some long- (or technically medium-) reach brakes like Ive got on my Milwaukee:
And I wont even mention cantilever brakes, which despite being powerful and offering lots of clearance are of course hopelessly out of style.
But no, there was nary a mention of medium-reach brakes until it was too late.
No, in order to run todays slightly-wider-than-23mm tires and slightly lower gearing youve got to buy a dedicated gravel bike with dick breaks and that thats it.
And there you go.
Not that I dont want bike shops to sell lots and lots of bikes or anything like that. And heres a bike shop owner whos also a mayor:
One day maybe well finally get a Fred or a Frederica into the White House. Then well all get a "pro deal" on our taxes.
Janet Tavakoli has always been more bark than bite. Being provocative is part of her shtick.
In her latest commentary, she accuses Goldman CFO David Viniar of lying about Goldmans exposure to AIG on a September 16, 2008 earnings call (the AIG bailout was negotiated later that day). This ridiculous conspiracy about Goldman and AIG just wont die, apparently.
On the call, Viniar said: "I would expect the direct impact of our credit exposure to [AIG] to be immaterial to our results." As Tavakoli acknowledges, its a strong statement to say that a CFO lied to the public. Its also a patently absurd statement in this case. Yes, I know, Goldman is evil, Goldman owns the government, yada yada yada. Anyway, back in the real world, Goldmans exposure to AIG almost certainly was immaterial.
Lets go over this again. The total notional amount of CDS protection that Goldman bought from AIG was roughly $20 billion. But "exposure" in credit derivatives is equal to the cost of replacing a credit derivative in the market, not the notional amount of the transaction. Think about it this way: if you buy a $300,000 homeowners insurance policy on your house, and your insurer goes bust, youre not out $300,000. The cost to you is simply the cost of buying another insurance policy to replace the first one. In Goldmans case, the cost of replacing its trades with AIG was about $10 billion. Against that $10 billion, Goldman held $7.5 billion in cash collateral. It then hedged the remaining $2.5 billion of exposure with CDS on AIG. This is why Viniar said that Goldmans direct exposure to AIG was immaterial.
So what are Tavakolis arguments? One is the Immaculate Negotiation argument:
The government could have stepped in and renegotiated its contracts. ... Goldman Sachs would have been out billions of dollars in collateral had a bankruptcy?like settlement been negotiated with AIG, and that is material.
Saying that Goldman wouldve taken a material loss if "a bankruptcy?like settlement been negotiated with AIG" is the equivalent of saying that Goldman wouldve taken a material loss if theyd agreed to take a material loss. Its true, but theres no way Goldman would ever have agreed to a "bankruptcy-like settlement" — why would they? As someone who has actually been involved in these kinds of negotiations, let me explain how the AIG/Goldman negotiations would have played out:
AIG: Would you be willing to accept, say, 70 cents on the dollar? Goldman: No.
THE END
Seriously, what could AIG have threatened Goldman with? If they didnt accept a haircut, AIG would file for bankruptcy? Fine, Goldman wouldve just seized the $7.5 billion in cash collateral, and collected the remaining $2.5 billion from its counterparties on the now-triggered CDS on AIG (on which more below), covering Goldmans full bilateral exposure to AIG. Thats what it means to be "hedged."
(This is also why the Fed paid Goldman and the other counterparties 100 cents on the dollar to terminate their CDS contracts with AIG, which this Bloomberg article portrays as some sort of gift to the banks. But the Bloomberg article also relies on the Immaculate Negotiation argument — how, exactly, was the Fed supposed to get the counterparties to agree to take a haircut? The Fed had just demonstrated to the entire world that it wasnt willing to let AIG file for Chapter 11. How do you suppose those negotiations would have gone? The Fed couldnt say, "You can either take a haircut to 70 cents or AIG will file for bankruptcy and youll only get 50 cents," because everyone knew the Fed wasnt willing to put AIG in bankruptcy.)
Now, with regard to that $2.5 billion in CDS on AIG, Tavakoli argues that "It is never a given that hedges will pay off when the chips are down." Thats true, and theres no guarantee that the counterparties who sold CDS on AIG to Goldman wouldve been able to make the payouts. But these CDS trades, like most standard single-name CDS trades, were margined daily. At the close on September 16, the CDS spread on AIG was 53 percent upfront and 500bps running, which means that the counterparties who sold Goldman CDS on AIG would have already posted around $1.4 million in collateral (excluding Independent Amounts). So the maximum potential shortfall to Goldman was about $1.1 billion — and the only way theyd lose that amount is if the counterparties they bought CDS on AIG from all somehow couldnt pay. Viniar was entirely justified in assuming that these counterparties wouldve paid the remaining $1.1 billion.
Tavakoli also argues that Goldman had exposure because AIGs failure would have caused a system-wide meltdown:
If AIG had gone under, the already illiquid market would have frozen. Collateral requirements for all trading would have increased (just as they did the week Bear imploded), and Goldman would have had problems collecting from many trading counterparties.
That may be true, but not only is that not the issue, theres also no way Viniar could possibly have known how the mayhem following an AIG default would have affected Goldman. Its not like he couldve said, "Yes, our exposure is material because an AIG default will cause hedge fund clients A, B, and C to withdraw their prime brokerage accounts, initial margins to rise by X, and 2-year swap spreads to fall Y basis points." No one knew what would happen if AIG was allowed to file for Chapter 11 — not even the Great Janet Tavakoli. Remember also that what Viniar said was that he expected "the direct impact of [Goldmans] credit exposure" to be immaterial. He wasnt talking about Goldmans exposure to a broad systemic meltdown, and no one thought he was either.
Finally, Tavakoli argues that Goldmans exposure to AIG included "reputation risk." Yes, Im sure that if AIG had failed, Goldmans reputation for having prudently managed its counterparty risk wouldve been devastating.
I own all 4 of Tavakolis books, and its undeniable that shes extremely smart. But like I said before, in her public commentary, shes all bark and no bite.
Jayalalithaa no more Rajinikanth calls TN CM a brave daughter
Tamil Nadu’s eminent leader also Chief Minister Jayalalithaa passed away last night at 11:30pm as per an announcement on Apollo Hospital. It was on Sunday evening, Jayalaithaa suffered a cardiac arrest and was rushed to the hospital. Since then, updates stated that her condition had been grave, she was on life support for both her heart and lungs. She had had a minor surgery but her progress had been negligible. It’s a huge loss for people of Tamil Nadu, they have lost their Amma, as she is fondly called. A leader who did so much for her people, one of the strongest women we will ever know. From an actress to a politican, it has been an unforgettable journey for the leader of the masses. A leader like no other, she will be. Celebs across industries mourned her death. Right from Amitabh Bachchan to Shah Rukh Khan to Suriya and Dhanush. Of course Tamil superstar Rajinikanth took to social media to pay condolences. He called an iron daughter. Amen to that. His tweet translates as “Not just Tamil Nadu but India has lost a brave daughter. I pray to God to rest her soul in peace,”
pic.twitter.com/beEKDlm5sQ
— Rajinikanth (@superstarrajini) December 5, 2016
For those who don’t know Jayalalithaa was actress who excelled across industries. She had 119 hits to her credit from 1060-1981. She was the first actress to wear sleeveless blouses and skirts. Her first film at the age of 15 was a blockbuster. That is what thwarted the plans to be a lawyer. She is also trained dancer of various forms and is familair with classical music and western piano. We have not lost lost a great leader but a brilliant artist.
The funeral rites will be held at 4:30pm at Marina Beach. Millions of followers, celebs , Ministers have come forward to pay homage to the Iron Lady. Schools and colleges will eb shut down for the next 3 days. The Tamil government has issued a 7 day state mourning. There will be no official entertainment held during this period.
Lets all give a huge, collective eyeroll to the Breast Cancer Fund, the Campaign for Safe Cosmetics, and UltraViolet. Ready?
These advocacy groups have targeted Revlon, demanding that the cosmetics company stop producing "makeup laced with cancer-causing chemicals". Their list of suspects includes chemicals that are not used by Revlon and other chemicals that are not associated with cancer. Revlon has responded via a cease-and-desist letter, demanding that the incorrect information be removed. This, supposedly, is "bullying".
These non-governmental organizations conducted a "survey" (they just read the ingredients list on Revlon products) to find alleged cancer-causing ingredients. The list of supposedly evil chemicals ("CHEMICALS" IS A SCARY WORD, YOU GUYS) includes:
Butylated hydroxyanisole (BHA) What it is: BHA is the name for two very similar organic compounds containing conjugated aromatic rings.
Why its in your makeup: BHA is an antioxidant and preservative. Its conjugated aromatic ring is able to scoop up free radicals, preventing further damage to molecular structures. In other words, your makeup wont go rancid! Why its not giving you cancer: First of all, its not causing cancer because its not in your makeup at all. Revlon hasnt used BHA in their products for years. Secondly, although it is true that high doses of BHA do cause squamous cell carcinomas in rats and hamsters (leading the National Institutes of Health to classify it as "reasonably anticipated to be a human carcinogen", the doses of BHA that one is exposed to as a human are so low that they dont show up as a statistical risk factor at all. The Netherlands Cohort Study, a study of 120,852 men and woman, showed that there was no association between BHA consumption and cancer risk. This wasnt just a case of "well, it didnt quite reach statistical significance"-- there was actually a statistically non-significant decrease in cancer risk associated with increased BHA consumption. BHA is currently recognized as a generally safe food additive in low doses. Finally, all the research on BHA and cancer risk has been on dietary BHA. This is important, since BHA is used in medicines and food. However, since you dont eat your foundation, it seems pretty unlikely that its going to give you stomach cancer.
Butylated hydroxytoluene (BHT) What it is: BHT is structurally similar to BHA.
Why its in your makeup: Like BHA, BHT can neutralize free radicals and prevent rancidity. Why its not giving you cancer: BHT has studies that indicate that it is a potential carcinogen, but there are also studies showing a protective effect. Regardless, at the dosage found in cosmetics, there is no indication that any harm is caused. A toxicology review on the potential for a carcinogenic effect "concludes that the concentrations of BHA and BHT nowadays used in food, drugs and cosmetics are probably harmless." P.S. Remember that Netherlands Cohort Study? It looked at BHT, too, and also showed a statistically insignificant protective effect. And that is if you are literally eating the stuff.
What it is: An ammonia salt. Why its in your makeup: Quaternium-15 is anti-microbial. It keeps the creepy-crawlies out of your mascara. Why its not giving you cancer: There are a couple of different claims about Quaternium-15 and their fuck-up-your-health-ability. Claim 1- Quaternium-15 is a teratogen [an agent that causes birth defects].: This is true, but misleading. As Becker and colleagues note in the International Journal of Toxicology, "Quaternium-15 [is] an oral teratogen, but not a dermal teratogen, in rats at doses that exceeded the expected cumulative exposure from cosmetics." In other words, if you are pregnant, do not eat 25 Revlon lipsticks. Otherwise, carry on. Claim 2- Quaternium-15 causes sensitization, increasing your likelihood of developing conditions like contact dermatitis.: This is also true, but misleading. This will only occur at high doses. Levels below 0.2% have never been shown to be sensitizing in either human or animal studies. Claim 3- Quaternium-15 releases formaldehyde, which causes cancer. Quaternium-15 may or may not be a formaldehyde-releaser. A 2012 study in Dermatitis found a correlation between formaldehyde-sensitivity and quaternium-15-sensitivity, but there was no predictability based on severity. The authors concluded, "Despite coreactivity with formaldehyde, quaternium-15 may not be a significant formaldehyde releaser." However, even if quaternium-15 does turn out to be a notable formaldehyde releaser, this concern will be primarily for individuals who are sensitive or allergic to formaldehyde.
Parabens
Paraben General Structure Image Source: http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/File:Paraben-2D-skeletal.png
What it is: Parabens are a class of preservatives. Why its in your makeup: Parabens are also antimicrobial. Why its not giving you cancer: I could wax poetic about parabens all fucking day, and, indeed, I already have. You can read the full post here. In summary, *Insert Raspberry Noise Here*.
What it is: An ester formed by methoxycinnamic acid and 2-ethylhexanol. Why its in your makeup: This sunscreen can absorb UVB rays. Why its not giving you cancer: Im really struggling to find evidence that there is a notable risk to octinoxate use. Regardless, octinoxate doesnt penetrate the skin enough to be concerning. Hayden and colleagues wrote in the Journal of Skin Pharmacology and Physiology that "the human viable epidermal levels of sunscreens are too low to cause any significant toxicity to the underlying human keratinocytes."
What it is: A dyhydroxy benzene that is the major natural phenol in argan oil. Why its in your makeup: Its an antiseptic that is used in hair dye and shampoo. Why its not giving you cancer: To be fair, the Campaign for Safe Cosmetics and their partners are not claiming that this gives you cancer, which is good, because that would be ridiculous. Theyre claiming it is an endocrine disruptor, which it totally is. However, there is no evidence that the levels found in shampoo (or argan oil or whatever you want to use) are sufficient to cause medical problems.
What it is: This is an aniline derivative that oxidizes from a white color to a darker brown. Why its in your makeup: p-Phenylenediamine is commonly found in hair dye. For those of you who have home-dyed your hair-- you know how the dye starts out white and then changes in color to be more reflective of the shade on the box? p-Phenylenediamine is one the ingredients that causes this color shift. Its oxidized state is a dye. Why its not giving you cancer: According to the EPA, p-Phenylenediamine "was not carcinogenic in a study of rats and mice exposed to the compound in the diet. Other studies have also demonstrated that p-phenylenediamine is not carcinogenic by oral or dermal exposure. " And, again, youre probably not eating your hair dye.
p-Phenylenediamine is definitely not completely risk-free, but that risk is adequately addressed by cosmetics companies. It is a contact allergen. However, if you follow the instructions on the hair dye which recommend patch-testing, this is not a significant concern.
Carbon Black
Carbon Black Image Source: http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/9/98/Carbon_black.jpg
What it is: A color additive produced by incomplete combustion of petroleum products. Why its in your makeup: Its black. Sometimes you want your makeup to be black. Why its not giving you cancer: Carbon Black has been identified as a potential carcinogen, and was originally eliminated from cosmetics in the United States in 1976. In 2005, the FDA granted one teensy tiny exception: High purity furnace blacks are allowed up to 2.5%, subject to batch certification. Research on carbon blacks that do not take into account current US law are kind of silly, to be frank, since random-ass carbon black that factory workers are exposed to isnt exactly comparable to the samples used in modern cosmetics. Furthermore, Im not necessarily sure that the carcinogenicity research on carbon black in general is particularly relevant to cosmetics, since all of it is based on accidental inhalation, and I generally refrain from snorting my mascara. There are no carcinogenicity studies based on topical exposure.
Is it possible that we will find sufficient evidence that the ingredients listed above are unsafe for use? Fuck yeah, its totally possible. However, the evidence right now suggests that they are safe.
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